Dynamic communicability predicts infectiousness

Using real, time-dependent social interaction data, we look at correlations between some recently proposed dynamic centrality measures and summaries from large-scale epidemic simulations. The evolving network arises from email exchanges. The centrality measures, which are relatively inexpensive to compute, assign rankings to individual nodes based on their ability to broadcast information over the dynamic topology. We compare these with node rankings based on infectiousness that arise when a full stochastic SI simulation is performed over the dynamic network. More precisely, we look at the proportion of the network that a node is able to infect over a fixed time period, and the length of time that it takes for a node to infect half the network.We find that the dynamic centrality measures are an excellent, and inexpensive, proxy for the full simulation-based measures

Sparse matrix computations for dynamic network centrality

Time sliced networks describing human-human digital interactions are typically large and sparse. This is the case, for example, with pairwise connectivity describing social media, voice call or physical proximity, when measured over seconds, minutes or hours. However, if we wish to quantify and compare the overall time-dependent centrality of the network nodes, then we should account for the global flow of information through time. Because the time-dependent edge structure typically allows information to diffuse widely around the network, a natural summary of sparse but dynamic pairwise interactions will generally take the form of a large dense matrix. For this reason, computing nodal centralities for a timedependent network can be extremely expensive in terms of both computation and storage; much more so than for a single, static network. In this work, we focus on the case of dynamic communicability, which leads to broadcast and receive centrality measures. We derive a new algorithm for computing time-dependent centrality that works with a sparsified version of the dynamic communicability matrix. In this way, the computation and storage requirements are reduced to those of a sparse, static network at each time point. The new algorithm is justified from first principles and then tested on a large scale data set. We find that even with very stringent sparsity requirements (retaining no more than ten times the number of nonzeros in the individual time slices), the algorithm accurately reproduces the list of highly central nodes given by the underlying full system. This allows us to capture centrality over time with a minimal level of storage and with a cost that scales only linearly with the number of time points. We also describe and test three variants of the proposed algorithm that require fewer parameters and achieve a further reduction in the computational cost

Spatio-temporal Models of Lymphangiogenesis in Wound Healing

Several studies suggest that one possible cause of impaired wound healing is failed or insufficient lymphangiogenesis, that is the formation of new lymphatic capillaries. Although many mathematical models have been developed to describe the formation of blood capillaries (angiogenesis), very few have been proposed for the regeneration of the lymphatic network. Lymphangiogenesis is a markedly different process from angiogenesis, occurring at different times and in response to different chemical stimuli. Two main hypotheses have been proposed: 1) lymphatic capillaries sprout from existing interrupted ones at the edge of the wound in analogy to the blood angiogenesis case; 2) lymphatic endothelial cells first pool in the wound region following the lymph flow and then, once sufficiently populated, start to form a network. Here we present two PDE models describing lymphangiogenesis according to these two different hypotheses. Further, we include the effect of advection due to interstitial flow and lymph flow coming from open capillaries. The variables represent different cell densities and growth factor concentrations, and where possible the parameters are estimated from biological data. The models are then solved numerically and the results are compared with the available biological literature.Comment: 29 pages, 9 Figures, 6 Tables (39 figure files in total

Discovering and validating influence in a dynamic online social network

Online human interactions take place within a dynamic hierarchy, where social influence is determined by qualities such as status, eloquence, trustworthiness, authority and persuasiveness. In this work, we consider topic-based twitter interaction networks, and address the task of identifying influential players. Our motivation is the strong desire of many commercial entities to increase their social media presence by engaging positively with pivotal bloggers and tweeters. After discussing some of the issues involved in extracting useful interaction data from a twitter feed, we define the concept of an active node subnetwork sequence. This provides a time-dependent, topic-based, summary of relevant twitter activity. For these types of transient interactions, it has been argued that the flow of information, and hence the influence of a node, is highly dependent on the timing of the links. Some nodes with relatively small bandwidth may turn out to be key players because of their prescience and their ability to instigate follow-on network activity. To simulate a commercial application, we build an active node subnetwork sequence based on key words in the area of travel and holidays. We then compare a range of network centrality measures, including a recently proposed version that accounts for the arrow of time, with respect to their ability to rank important nodes in this dynamic setting. The centrality rankings use only connectivity information (who tweeted whom, when), without requiring further information about the account type or message content, but if we post-process the results by examining account details, we find that the time-respecting, dynamic approach, which looks at the follow-on flow of information, is less likely to be ‘misled’ by accounts that appear to generate large numbers of automatic tweets with the aim of pushing out web links. We then benchmark these algorithmically derived rankings against independent feedback from five social media experts, given access to the full tweet content, who judge twitter accounts as part of their professional duties. We find that the dynamic centrality measures add value to the expert view, and can be hard to distinguish from an expert in terms of who they place in the top ten. These algorithms, which involve sparse matrix linear system solves with sparsity driven by the underlying network structure, can be applied to very large-scale networks. We also test an extension of the dynamic centrality measure that allows us to monitor the change in ranking, as a function of time, of the twitter accounts that were eventually deemed influential